Occam's Razor

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Thermal Detonator

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Occam's Razor
« on: October 01, 2009, 03:52:16 PM »
Many people on the forum try to use Occam's Razor as a demonstration that the earth is round, which is silly as Occam's Razor has no logical basis, merely a basis of probability and possibility, which proves nothing.
However - I have been trying to think of occasions where Occam's Razor has been shown not to be valid and I can't think of any. Has anyone got any examples?
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2009, 05:28:19 PM »
http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=Occams+Razor

No, those are not examples because the validity of them has not shown to be true without the need for invocation of extra laws of physics, extra non-detectable celestial bodies, and so on, which is precisely against the Occam's Razor principle. In order for your "more simple" explanations to be true, they are required to be more complicated than the Round Earth equivalent.
I was hoping to get some answers that were not in dispute between the flat and round camps. The shape of the earth is not relevant to the question I'm posing.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2009, 06:12:42 PM »
No, those are not examples because the validity of them has not shown to be true without the need for invocation of extra laws of physics, extra non-detectable celestial bodies, and so on, which is precisely against the Occam's Razor principle. In order for your "more simple" explanations to be true, they are required to be more complicated than the Round Earth equivalent.
I was hoping to get some answers that were not in dispute between the flat and round camps. The shape of the earth is not relevant to the question I'm posing.

In each of the examples in the link, the Flat Earth Model provides the simplest explanation.

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Parsifal

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2009, 06:14:54 PM »
Somebody give Tom a kick up the boot sector.
I'm going to side with the white supremacists.

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Pete

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2009, 06:47:52 PM »
No, those are not examples because the validity of them has not shown to be true without the need for invocation of extra laws of physics, extra non-detectable celestial bodies, and so on, which is precisely against the Occam's Razor principle. In order for your "more simple" explanations to be true, they are required to be more complicated than the Round Earth equivalent.
I was hoping to get some answers that were not in dispute between the flat and round camps. The shape of the earth is not relevant to the question I'm posing.

In each of the examples in the link, the Flat Earth Model provides the simplest explanation.

What a reliable link.....  ::)

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Benjamin Franklin

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2009, 07:06:31 PM »
Theism vs Atheism
Theism makes one assumption, God exists and makes the universe work.
Atheism, well



So hey, if you believe in Occam's Razor, you sure as hell better be a hardcore Catholic/Muslim/Jew.

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Parsifal

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2009, 07:07:51 PM »
Atheism is a lack of belief. What you have described there is not atheism.
I'm going to side with the white supremacists.

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Pete

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2009, 07:15:50 PM »
Atheism is a lack of belief. What you have described there is not atheism.


That, and I'm amused by the belief that the issue is somehow Atheism vs. ID/Creationism

As if its impossible to be religious and simply not hold a literal interpretation of your religion's creation story.

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2009, 11:32:09 AM »

In each of the examples in the link, the Flat Earth Model provides the simplest explanation.

Fine, let me beat your examples to a bloody pulp one at a time:

1.What's the simplest explanation; that my experience of existing upon a plane wherever I go and whatever I do is a massive illusion, that my eyes are constantly deceiving me and that I am actually looking at the enormous sphere of the earth spinning through space at tens of thousands of miles an hour, whirling in perpetual epicycles around the universe; or is the simplest explanation that my eyes are not playing tricks on me and that the earth is exactly as it appears?

A useless example because the appearances of a flat earth and a gigantic sphere are superficially the same when viewed from very close up, and also because it's not true. If what your eyes tell you is exactly as it is, then the sinking of ships over the horizon supports roundness not flatness, because that is what you see. A flat earth explanation requires an additional made up law of physics to account for that. So that immediately makes it more complicated. Next.

2.What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter straight up at 7 miles per second, and that NASA can do the impossible on a daily basis, explore the cosmos, and constantly wow the nation by landing a man on the moon and sending robots to mars; or is the simplest explanation that they really can't do all of that stuff?

This is nothing to do with a simple explanation of phenomena and observed physics - it's about human behaviour. Which is more likely - that humans get up, go out and do something complicated, or that every single one of them sits on their arse all day eating crisps?
Humans have done far more complex tasks, in terms of both the technology and level of science involved, than the space programme. A modern fighter jet is way more technologically advanced than the capsules that took men into space. Just because something requires a lot of effort does not make it less likely.

3.When I walk off the edge of a three foot drop off and go into free fall while observing the surface of the earth carefully the earth appears to accelerate up towards me. What's the simplest explanation; that there exists hypothetical undiscovered Graviton particles emanating from the earth which allows them to accelerate my body towards the surface through unexplained quantum effects; or is the simplest explanation that this mysterious highly theoretical mechanism does not exist and the earth has just accelerated upwards towards me exactly as I've observed?

This is a stupid example because first of all, the appearance of the earth accelerating towards you and you accelerating towards the earth are identical. You are trying to say the former looks more likely than the latter, which is opinion, not science. You then try to say "gravity is complicated and involves all these whizz bang particles, ooh, tricky" and then try to make out that the acceleration of earth doesn't need an explanation. Yeah, just leave out what force is required to move it, what causes the force, how does it interact with matter and so on - you can't say something is simpler just because you've left out all the details.

4.What's the simplest explanation; that when I look up and see the sun slowly move across the sky over the course of the day, that the globe earth is spinning at over a thousand miles per hour - faster than the speed of sound at the equator - despite me being unable able to feel this centripetal acceleration, or is the simplest explanation that the sun itself is just moving across the sky exactly as I have observed?

The simplest explanation is that the sun does not move, because it explains the appearance of sunrises and sunsets, and also the motions of the stars, so two simpler explanations for the price of one.  :P For your idea to explain sunrises and sunsets, and the movement of stars, extra laws of physics have to be added. And as for feeling the speed - have you ever been in a plane? Do you know how fast they fly? Do you know you can't feel it? Oh dear, you are the most complex link, goodbye.

5.What's the simplest explanation; that the sun, moon, and stars are enormous bodies of unimaginable mass, size, and distances which represent frontiers to a vast and infinite unknowable universe teeming with alien worlds, galactic civilizations, black holes, quarks and nebulae, and phenomena only conceivable in science fiction; or is the simplest explanation that the universe isn't so large or unknown and when we look up at the stars we are just looking at small points of light exactly they appear to be?

Presence or otherwise of alien worlds and galactic civilisations is irrelevant and does not contribute to the argument, so forget that. And as before, the "stars are small" argument is no simpler than the "stars are big" argument - both require just as much explanation about what powers them, what are they made of, etc. So no dice.

Sorry to go all Levee on you there.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2009, 11:41:12 AM »
OK, I've not had one sensible contribution to my original post yet. I want examples where there is proof of one explanation over another, not conjecture. That rules out any type of religious examples (make a note, Churchill).
NB Theism is not even a simpler explanation, it's merely a "summary of explanations". For instance:
Q."What makes the flowers grow?"
A."The power of God"
is no more of a simple explanation than
Q."What makes earthquakes happen?
A."The laws of physics".
Saying "God did it" is not explaining anything, it's an excuse to leave things unexplained. The mechanism by which God operates must still exist.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2009, 06:18:41 PM »

In each of the examples in the link, the Flat Earth Model provides the simplest explanation.

Fine, let me beat your examples to a bloody pulp one at a time:

1.What's the simplest explanation; that my experience of existing upon a plane wherever I go and whatever I do is a massive illusion, that my eyes are constantly deceiving me and that I am actually looking at the enormous sphere of the earth spinning through space at tens of thousands of miles an hour, whirling in perpetual epicycles around the universe; or is the simplest explanation that my eyes are not playing tricks on me and that the earth is exactly as it appears?

A useless example because the appearances of a flat earth and a gigantic sphere are superficially the same when viewed from very close up, and also because it's not true. If what your eyes tell you is exactly as it is, then the sinking of ships over the horizon supports roundness not flatness, because that is what you see. A flat earth explanation requires an additional made up law of physics to account for that. So that immediately makes it more complicated. Next.

2.What's the simplest explanation; that NASA has successfully designed and invented never before seen rocket technologies from scratch which can accelerate 100 tons of matter straight up at 7 miles per second, and that NASA can do the impossible on a daily basis, explore the cosmos, and constantly wow the nation by landing a man on the moon and sending robots to mars; or is the simplest explanation that they really can't do all of that stuff?

This is nothing to do with a simple explanation of phenomena and observed physics - it's about human behaviour. Which is more likely - that humans get up, go out and do something complicated, or that every single one of them sits on their arse all day eating crisps?
Humans have done far more complex tasks, in terms of both the technology and level of science involved, than the space programme. A modern fighter jet is way more technologically advanced than the capsules that took men into space. Just because something requires a lot of effort does not make it less likely.

3.When I walk off the edge of a three foot drop off and go into free fall while observing the surface of the earth carefully the earth appears to accelerate up towards me. What's the simplest explanation; that there exists hypothetical undiscovered Graviton particles emanating from the earth which allows them to accelerate my body towards the surface through unexplained quantum effects; or is the simplest explanation that this mysterious highly theoretical mechanism does not exist and the earth has just accelerated upwards towards me exactly as I've observed?

This is a stupid example because first of all, the appearance of the earth accelerating towards you and you accelerating towards the earth are identical. You are trying to say the former looks more likely than the latter, which is opinion, not science. You then try to say "gravity is complicated and involves all these whizz bang particles, ooh, tricky" and then try to make out that the acceleration of earth doesn't need an explanation. Yeah, just leave out what force is required to move it, what causes the force, how does it interact with matter and so on - you can't say something is simpler just because you've left out all the details.

4.What's the simplest explanation; that when I look up and see the sun slowly move across the sky over the course of the day, that the globe earth is spinning at over a thousand miles per hour - faster than the speed of sound at the equator - despite me being unable able to feel this centripetal acceleration, or is the simplest explanation that the sun itself is just moving across the sky exactly as I have observed?

The simplest explanation is that the sun does not move, because it explains the appearance of sunrises and sunsets, and also the motions of the stars, so two simpler explanations for the price of one.  :P For your idea to explain sunrises and sunsets, and the movement of stars, extra laws of physics have to be added. And as for feeling the speed - have you ever been in a plane? Do you know how fast they fly? Do you know you can't feel it? Oh dear, you are the most complex link, goodbye.

5.What's the simplest explanation; that the sun, moon, and stars are enormous bodies of unimaginable mass, size, and distances which represent frontiers to a vast and infinite unknowable universe teeming with alien worlds, galactic civilizations, black holes, quarks and nebulae, and phenomena only conceivable in science fiction; or is the simplest explanation that the universe isn't so large or unknown and when we look up at the stars we are just looking at small points of light exactly they appear to be?

Presence or otherwise of alien worlds and galactic civilisations is irrelevant and does not contribute to the argument, so forget that. And as before, the "stars are small" argument is no simpler than the "stars are big" argument - both require just as much explanation about what powers them, what are they made of, etc. So no dice.

Sorry to go all Levee on you there.

You're wrong.

The simplest explanation is that the earth is flat because that is what is observed.

The simplest explanation is that NASA doesn't have all of these "amazing" technologies.

The simplest explanation is that the earth is accelerating upwards because that is what is observed. No one observes "graviton" particles or anything like that.

The simplest explanation is that the sun moves because that is what is observed.

The simplest explanation is that the stars are small because that is what is observed.

By all accounts the Flat Earth model clearly provides the simplest explanation for our experiences.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2009, 06:20:49 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Roundy the Truthinessist

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2009, 06:55:19 PM »
You're wrong.

The simplest explanation is that the earth is flat because that is what is observed.

The simplest explanation is that NASA doesn't have all of these "amazing" technologies.

The simplest explanation is that the earth is accelerating upwards because that is what is observed. No one observes "graviton" particles or anything like that.

The simplest explanation is that the sun moves because that is what is observed.

The simplest explanation is that the stars are small because that is what is observed.

By all accounts the Flat Earth model clearly provides the simplest explanation for our experiences.

Just because this isn't one of the FE forums, I'm going to break character in order to tear all of these apart.

Your biggest problem (and TD shares it, apparently) is a lack of understanding of Occam's Razor.  It asks which explanation makes the least assumptions, not which is simpler.  For example, the notion that the Earth is so large that we can't see the curvature makes no assumptions.  We know that the Earth is large enough that if it's curved, we wouldn't be able to observe the curvature.  Furthermore, the curvature is visible, in the form of the horizon.  FE can't get around this without making assumptions... either that the only published "scientist" to truly understand perspective was Rowbotham and everyone else is wrong, or the unproven and thus-far undemonstrated notion that light bends.  So Occam's Razor actually favors neither explanation for the apparent flatness of the Earth, and when you throw the horizon and sinking ship effect into the mix it really favors RE.

You don't have to make any assumptions about NASA's technology; we see that it exists.  You are actually making an assumption when you claim that NASA is lying about the technology existing.  So Occam's Razor actually favors the explanation that the technology exists, not that it doesn't.

For the gravity question, let's forget about gravitons because it is a strawman.  The question is, does mass appear to attract other mass in a way that is measurable?  The answer is yes.  I can't see Occam's Razor favoring the accelerating upwards model, as we don't really observe the Earth accelerating upwards; as with gravity, we are only observing the effect.  In fact, when I drop something, I clearly observe it accelerating downwards to the Earth, not the other way around; the Earth appears to my eyes to not move at all.  We'll call this one a draw.  One thing that's certain is that Occam's Razor doesn't favor FET in this instance.

As for the sun moving rather than the Earth rotating to cause the appearance that the sun is moving, there's too much about the former explanation that just doesn't make sense.  For example, if the sun is actually much smaller than RE says and moving while the Earth remains stationary in relation to it, then why does it not change apparent shape?  "Glare" is an assumption.  So far FET has yet to come up with anything approaching a rational explanation for the midnight sun.  Therefore, Occam's Razor favors RE in this case as well.  The only thing we have to assume is that the Earth is rotating.  The rest just neatly falls into place, unlike FE, where there are so many holes that a huge number of new, unrelated, and unsubstantiated explanations have to be assumed in order for it to work.

Again, it doesn't matter that we observe the stars to be small, and frankly it's a ridiculous argument.  That objects appear smaller when they are far away is such an obvious fact that it's almost something we can recognize a priori.  But just to prove it for yourself, Tom, try moving your hand back and forth from right in front of your eyes to at arm's length from your eyes.  Do you notice how much less of your surroundings are obscured when your hand is at arm's length than when it is close?  That's because from your eyes' point of view your hand appears much larger when it's close to your face than when it's far away.  Since FET has no rational way to measure the distance to the stars, FET makes an assumption when it claims that they are small because they appear small.  Again, FET fails the Occam's Razor test, or it can most generously be described as a draw.

Of course, none of this really matters as it regards this website, as Occam's Razor really does not provide proof of anything, and this website is really all about demonstrating the plausibility of FET.  But you are mistaken when you claim that Occam's Razor favors FET.  Far from it.
Where did you educate the biology, in toulet?

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2009, 09:41:58 PM »
Quote
Your biggest problem (and TD shares it, apparently) is a lack of understanding of Occam's Razor.  It asks which explanation makes the least assumptions, not which is simpler.

The explanation which makes the least assumptions is - get this -  the simplest explanation!

Quote
For example, the notion that the Earth is so large that we can't see the curvature makes no assumptions.  We know that the Earth is large enough that if it's curved, we wouldn't be able to observe the curvature.  Furthermore, the curvature is visible, in the form of the horizon.  FE can't get around this without making assumptions...

No one's doubting that FET makes assumptions. The questions is, which one is simpler.

Quote
either that the only published "scientist" to truly understand perspective was Rowbotham and everyone else is wrong, or the unproven and thus-far undemonstrated notion that light bends.  So Occam's Razor actually favors neither explanation for the apparent flatness of the Earth, and when you throw the horizon and sinking ship effect into the mix it really favors RE.

The sinking ship effect is actually a proof for a flat earth. Since the hulls of ships have been restored with telescopes it proves that they really weren't hiding behind "hills of water".

Quote
You don't have to make any assumptions about NASA's technology; we see that it exists.

I don't.

Quote
You are actually making an assumption when you claim that NASA is lying about the technology existing.  So Occam's Razor actually favors the explanation that the technology exists, not that it doesn't.

Of course I'm making an assumption. Mine is simpler.

Quote
For the gravity question, let's forget about gravitons because it is a strawman.  The question is, does mass appear to attract other mass in a way that is measurable?  The answer is yes.

I haven't seen mass do that.

Quote
I can't see Occam's Razor favoring the accelerating upwards model, as we don't really observe the Earth accelerating upwards; as with gravity, we are only observing the effect.

I can experience the earth accelerating upwards. I cannot experience "gravitons" or "bending space". Ergo, an accelerating earth is the simplest explanation because I can experience it directly. To experience it all I need to do is walk off the edge of my chair.

I can see and experience that the earth is accelerating upwards.

I cannot experience gravitons or bending space.

Quote
As for the sun moving rather than the Earth rotating to cause the appearance that the sun is moving, there's too much about the former explanation that just doesn't make sense.  For example, if the sun is actually much smaller than RE says and moving while the Earth remains stationary in relation to it, then why does it not change apparent shape?  "Glare" is an assumption.

No, it's not. The magnification of celestial bodies as they reach the distant horizon line is directly observable. The next time you're out on a clear night look at the star constellations near the horizon line. They're huge.

You can also see it happening to headlights while driving down the highway.

http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=Magnification+of+the+Sun+at+Sunset

Scroll down to the highway section.

Quote
but just to prove it for yourself, Tom, try moving your hand back and forth from right in front of your eyes to at arm's length from your eyes.  Do you notice how much less of your surroundings are obscured when your hand is at arm's length than when it is close?  That's because from your eyes' point of view your hand appears much larger when it's close to your face than when it's far away.  Since FET has no rational way to measure the distance to the stars, FET makes an assumption when it claims that they are small because they appear small.

When observing an apparently small body the simplest explanation is that it's a small body.

Only until demonstrated otherwise can it be called a large one.

Quote
Of course, none of this really matters as it regards this website, as Occam's Razor really does not provide proof of anything, and this website is really all about demonstrating the plausibility of FET.  But you are mistaken when you claim that Occam's Razor favors FET.  Far from it.

The explanation which makes the least assumptions is the simplest explanation. So far Flat Earth Theory provides all the simple explanations for our daily experiences.

I'm not saying that Occam's Razor is to be used as "proof "for anything. The simplest explanation is simply the explanation which must be taken as premise to all opposing theories. All future theories must provide demonstration in contradiction the to the prevailing pretense.

Ex: The simplest explanation is that ghosts do not exist. Therefore the burden of demonstration is on anyone who claims that they do.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2009, 12:26:57 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2009, 04:46:21 AM »
Too levee: didn't read.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Trekky0623

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2009, 04:58:59 AM »
Theism vs Atheism
Theism makes one assumption, God exists and makes the universe work.
Atheism, well



So hey, if you believe in Occam's Razor, you sure as hell better be a hardcore Catholic/Muslim/Jew.


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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2009, 05:53:29 AM »
Too levee: didn't read.

tldr: FET provides the simplest explanation for our experiences.

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Crustinator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2009, 09:04:16 AM »
Theism vs Atheism
Theism makes one assumption, God exists and makes the universe work.
Atheism, well

...
makes no assumptions.
...

So hey, if you believe in Occam's Razor, you sure as hell better be a hardcore atheist.

Fixed.

Keep trying. You'll get there once day.

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Roundy the Truthinessist

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2009, 09:54:39 AM »
Quote
Your biggest problem (and TD shares it, apparently) is a lack of understanding of Occam's Razor.  It asks which explanation makes the least assumptions, not which is simpler.

The explanation which makes the least assumptions is - get this -  the simplest explanation!

No.  That's an oversimplification.
Where did you educate the biology, in toulet?

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2009, 09:57:44 AM »
Even if I haven't got the exact definition of Occam's Razor quite right, Bishop was wrong to throw unproven nonsense into the mix. I'm still waiting for proper examples of where it has definitively been proved wrong.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Chris Spaghetti

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2009, 12:37:38 PM »
Theism vs Atheism
Theism makes one assumption, God exists and makes the universe work.
Atheism, well



So hey, if you believe in Occam's Razor, you sure as hell better be a hardcore Catholic/Muslim/Jew.


I love it

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2009, 07:34:59 PM »
Quote
Your biggest problem (and TD shares it, apparently) is a lack of understanding of Occam's Razor.  It asks which explanation makes the least assumptions, not which is simpler.

The explanation which makes the least assumptions is - get this -  the simplest explanation!

No.  That's an oversimplification.

The simplest explanation definitely isn't the explanation with the most assumptions.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2009, 02:55:25 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2009, 02:54:53 AM »
Bishop, enough. I don't want or need further input from you in this thread.
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.

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Trekky0623

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2009, 05:35:41 AM »
The problem with FET is that the theory has no real mathematics behind it, which any good theory should. You should be able to construct a model of FET that works all the time in the simplest way possible, which does not always happen what with the arguments on perspective and moon phases and everything else. Also, no one has really gone out to try and learn more for FET, which makes this difficult, I admit, but at the present time, it's just that you can demonstrate RE without using weird rules (simple), whereas the current FET requires all kinds of excuses and loopholes (complex).

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Thermal Detonator

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Re: Occam's Razor
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2009, 03:29:51 PM »
No examples forthcoming, locking this thread.  :-*
Gayer doesn't live in an atmosphere of vaporised mustard like you appear to, based on your latest photo.